2005 Gold Cup Qualifying Round

[AFLGuru]

Seems to me as though this competition will snap back into place after a crazy opening set of games that featured South Africa and Panama both picking up victories against superior opponents. We saw Mexico earlier in the day come out and romp Guatemala, and it seems as though anything but a victory from Colombia tonight would be a shock. But are people on this Panama team tonight for any particular reasoning? I honestly know nothing about this Trinidad team, but I remember watching the Panama game that the USA played in Panama perhaps a month ago. Panama looked completely flat the entire game, and the US walked away with an easy victory. Reading up on Panama, many of their younger players are not being used, choosing instead to go with veteran leadership... two players came out of retirement for this competition, but I can see their legs being weary after the match against Colombia only a few days ago. Panama also went a long stretch of games without scoring and has had no success in WCQ either.

+120 on Trinidad tonight seems to be a great pick, though I could easily see this game being a 0-0 draw. Don't know how Panama plans on scoring with their mindset likely being similar to what it was against Colombia... playing to get a point and hopefully sneak into round 2 of this competition. Even playing on a 1-0 Trinidad victory seems more likely than the given odds of +763. And if one isn't fully confident in T&T, then under 2 1/4 would be a reasonable play as well... does anyone see Panama scoring even once, let alone twice in this match? Just looking for some thoughts... Figure if I can see trends like this, someone must have better information than I do that can help.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

For example, this set of wagering... (using hypothetical $$$ amounts here)

T&T ml $150/$180
Under 2 1/4 goals $168/$150

Total Goals Odd $100/$104

Exact scores...
0-0 Draw $70/$468.30
1-1 Draw $60/$238.20
1-0 T&T $30/$228.90
2-0 T&T $30/$258.30

This way, you have the following results grid in terms of profit based on the following final scores... (Net wagered: $608)

0-0 Draw: +$348.30
0-1 Panama: -$86.00
0-2 Panama: -$365.00
1-1 Draw: +$8.20
1-0 T&T: +$502.90
2-0 T&T: +$253.30
3-0 T&T (or any T&T win with odd total goals): -$74.00
3-1 T&T (or any T&T win with even total goals): -$278.00

I honestly can't see a team that took so long to score a goal to score more than once tonight. I suppose just betting T&T and under and wagering $300 on a side could be the way to go instead of screwing around with props, but the way this has it, if Panama doesn't score, T&T needs to score 4 times to create any sort of real loss on the game. If Panama scores, obviously the % wins goes down, and should they score twice, this logic would be in serious trouble. But it seems to be minimizing risk here, while not exactly maximizing reward, but it does net a profit on the absolutely most logical final scores. Just looking for thoughts as to whether I should go this creative route, the straight bet route, or just laying off entirely here...

 

[THEJET]

AFL, these two teams are so similar and evenly matched, that I wouldn't touch this game if you paid me. Trinidad & Tobago are (3-2-5) in their last 10 qualifier matches, and Panama is (2-4-4). As you know Tinadad did take out Panama back on June 4th 2-0, but that means nothing at this point. That 3 pts that Panama got over Colombia on wednesday is indicative of just what you can expect throughout this tournament. If I had to make a wager on this game, I would go with the +120. But as you stated GURU, 0-0 is more likely than anything. Sorry I couldn't be more help. Now had you asked me about Mexico.....LOL


Jet

 

[AFLGuru]

Reading articles on this tournament holistically, the teams expected to advance from this group were Colombia and T&T, and many people ranked Panama the worst of all of the sides in this tourney. Gotta imagine that Panama is quite content with a 0-0 draw in this one after swiping 3 points from Colombia... perhaps I'll go with T&T +120 and 0-0 draw at +700 or so.

Panama is also 2-4-4 and I don't think have played a game over 2 goals in that stretch... of course, now that I open my mouth, tonight will be the night... lol

 

[AFLGuru]

Just looked up the stuff for recent history of matches of these two teams. Panama has been 14 out of 18 at or under 2 since the middle of '04, with the matches that have gone over being matches they got thrashed in (with the exception of a 2-1 game with Costa Rica). They have 5 goals scored in those 18 games... clearly not what you're looking for to win games.

Trinidad has a slightly better history in terms of goal productivity, but their recent form has 4 straight under 2.5 goals, and 5 out of 6 that way (the exception being a 4-0 thrashing of Bermuda). And short of 2-0 against Mexico, it's been since the USA qualifier that they've allowed more than 1 goal.

Trinidad with a strong defense paired with Panama's interest in grabbing a point really leans hard towards a 0-0 draw, 1-0 T&T, or 2-0 T&T... perhaps Panama can sneak a goal, but I'll take my chances that they don't with 5 goals scored in 18 matches.

 

[AFLGuru]

Eh, I've talked myself into this... between the fact that Panama can't score and the fact that weather can't be ideal in the Orange Bowl still... I've gotta imagine it's still rather windy and extremely humid in Miami... I'm gonna play on the 0-0 draw, T&T at +120, and under 2 1/4 at -116

 

[MarkieMark+]

I think you are on to something with those picks. Good Luck!

MM

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah maybe, but in this instance, looks like a dud... Panama scored, something I didn't plan on with these bets. I'm probably gonna go back and put a bit on the 2nd half same plays if the score remains 1-1 at the half.

 

[AFLGuru]

Trinidad (-1/4) and under 1 1/4 2nd half... hope for a 1-0 2-1 Trinidad victory, but 1-1 draw wouldn't surprise...

 

[AFLGuru]

Ridiculous ending to this game cost me everything I bet... Running 90th minutes split the points in this one, and as my luck would have it at the end of tonight, Panama scores 2 goals in a game for the first time since the middle of '04... unreal ending... but I caught a ton of breaks earlier today, namely the 90th minute pull in the Intertoto, so it happens... But TWO goals in the 90th minute just kill me... just made today a good day instead of a great day.

 

[AFLGuru]

I'm going after our dear Panamanian friends once again today...

Honduras and the under... even though I must I'm going much lighter on this game than the last, as we won't know until gametime whether it means anything to either team or not. If Trinidad beats Colombia, only the winner of this match, if there is one, will go through. And since both Panama and Honduras have the same points and goals, I have NO idea which one would advance to round 2 if the game drew, but I'd have to assume that T&T would advance with a win over Colombia just on goal differential.

That being said, I'm also laying on T&T on the moneyline to advance by beating up a dipshit Colombia team that has done nothing but disappoint in this tournament and was eliminated after freakin' Panama drew 2-2.

Refusing to bet the other two matches... Never know which USA team is gonna show up, and Canada and Cuba both suck. I'd have to think that Cuba at 4-1 is a nice picks, as is probably the draw at almost 3.50-1, but this game is just a disgrace to begin with. They shouldn't even play it. So my guess is that it's anybody's call who's doing what, and I suppose in that type of a situation, the goal on your side is probably the way to go, but I'm not risking anything on that.

 

[chriscol]

why is columbia out? what i see that 2 top 3rd place teams also qualify for the quaters. so if they win they are probably in.

Also for the us. even if they are already qualified. but if they finish first in group they will play a 3rd place team instead of a group leader if they finish 2nd. so i expect them to show up.

 

[AFLGuru]

Chriscol...

You're probably right. Foolish me was just thinking that this was a top 2 qualify for the next round type of ordeal. Still, knowing that this team hasn't shown up yet to date, 5-1 is a generous offer on a team fighting to survive as well.

 

[MarkieMark+]

INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR GROUP A

If Trinidad were to beat Colombia by a score of 1-0 tonight, a DRAW between Honduras and Panama with a score of 2-2 or greater would ensure that Honduras and Panama would both qualify for the Quarter-Finals.
A 2-1 win for Trinidad would mean that Honduras and Panama would both qualify with a Draw of 3-3 or greater. I find this very interesting since this would not be the first time that something like this was "ARRANGED" at an international tournament.

MM

 

[AFLGuru]

Yes, but in order for all of that to work, Trinidad would have to win 1-0... By my understanding though, both Panama and Honduras have already qualified for round two... one of the two teams has to win the group (unless Trinidad wins), and if two third place teams advance, 4 points is already a lock unless Trinidad wins and 3 teams from Group C all end up with 4 points.

No one needs to remind us of the Sweden/Holland??? (Don't remember exactly who it was) fiasco where a 2-2 draw on the exact score paid like -150 by gametime... sure enough, that was the "predetermined" final done to screw over Italy.

If it's fixed, I get what I deserve for betting into this. But if not and these teams actually play to win, I feel I'm on the right side of this one... but I felt that a couple days ago too...

 

[AFLGuru]

And if Chriscol is right, and he definitely is... the top two 3rd place teams both qualify for the 2nd round anyway. Canada or Cuba will be the 3rd place team from Group B, meaning they've both already qualified anyway and will be playing for placement if I'm understanding this right...

USA and Costa Rica are through from Group B with 6 points each

Honduras and Panama are both through from Group A with 4 points each

Same should be true about South Africa and Jamaica from Group C with 4 points each

That being said, there are 2 spots left for qualification by my understanding, of which Mexico and Trinidad are the in driver's seats for. If Mexico gets a point, they're through because the best any other 3rd place team can do is 3 points. Trinidad should be through with a draw paired with a Cuba/Canada draw. Colombia needs a win and a Cuba/Canada draw to advance, or possibly a Mexico loss tomorrow.

In other words, Canada, Colombia, and Cuba all need wins to stay alive in the tournament

Mexico advances with a point from their game tomorrow or a Canada/Cuba draw tonight

Essentially, if Canada/Cuba end up drawing, everything else is for placement... 4 teams get tossed from the tournament after this round, and should Canada and Cuba draw, they're both done, as is the loser of the T&T/Colombia match (Colombia being ousted with a draw), and the other being either T&T with only 3 points, or Mexico.

Once again, I think I've got this right, but if someone knows differently, please post.

 

[MarkieMark+]

All technical aspects of your post are correct. Panama and Honduras can still ENSURE a 1st - 2nd finish by playing to a draw. This would be advantageous since both could avoid a Group Winner in the Quarter Finals.

Also, don't discount a Canada win. I have watched both of Canada's games from start to finish and they have a very good defense that could serve them well tonight against a lack-lustre Cuban team. McKenna will return to the line-up for Canada after being suspended for the game against the U.S. and I expect that he is going to be a VERY determined goal-scorer.

 

[AFLGuru]

Okay, that makes sense then... Of course, the prospect of the 3rd place teams being Mexico and Colombia might make me want to reconsider finishing 1st in my group... but that's just me...

 

[AFLGuru]

Now here's the other thing. Cuba's gotta basically be done. Their goal differential is shit. Even if Trinidad draws, Canada's gotta win by at least 3 goals, or hope that Mexico gets shelled by... Jamaica... If Colombia wins, Canada's gotta win by at least 2 goals to have a chance at qualification, right? (Goals: Colombia, assume 1-0 win: 2-3, Canada, assume 2-0 win: 2-3) Obviously if Colombia wins by more goals, the less and less likely Canada's chances are... This leads me to believe that Canada will win handlely if they have to, or at least be out to be, with Cuba being completely done. Now I know why folks are betting on Canada. Makes sense. Cuba's got no chance. Canada's got faint chances at best, but chances nonetheless.

 

[AFLGuru]

Very ho-hum first half for me with Panama. Hope things lay low and I can pull out a 1-0 victory for the "home" side. And congrats to Trinidad who got bounced because they couldn't hold Panama under 2 goals. Colombia not nearly out of the woods yet, but you'd like to think that Canada's gotta win by 3 to screw 'em. Gonna buy one of the two units I dropped on this in the 2nd half over 1 1/4, still making 1-0 Honduras a very nice goal, and 2-0 all the better. Also protects a 1-1 draw into a winning game for me.